President Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign (spring 2025) slapped steep duties on Chinese imports – eventually reaching about 145% for many goods. These “reciprocal” tariffs were intended to protect U.S. industries and force Beijing to address trade imbalances. The impact was immediate and stark: major West Coast ports saw sharp declines in inbound Chinese cargo. Port of Los Angeles Director Gene Seroka warned that “essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased”. U.S. import booking data confirm this slump: bookings for inbound containers fell 64% in a single week (late March to early April), and shipments from China were down 36% in that interval.

The effects show up in terminal throughput. For example, April 2025 container imports had spiked as shippers front‐loaded cargo, but Los Angeles port executives now expect a 35% year-over-year drop in weekly throughput. By May, the combined volume at Los Angeles/Long Beach was forecast to be 20–30% lower than a year earlier. In other words, one of the busiest U.S. port complexes – which handles nearly half its volume from China – saw volumes plunge as carriers and retailers paused orders. This sudden drop in import containers meant fewer freight loads available for U.S. trucking, contributing to tighter load boards and more competition for domestic cargo.

Freight and Trucking Markets Slow

The collapse of import traffic fed through the supply chain. Truckload freight volumes have leveled off or declined as tariff-driven ordering came to a halt. Data firm DAT Freight reported that after an initial surge (trucks were hauling record volume while shippers stockpiled), all the signals then “turned south in a hurry” once the trade war kicked in. Year-over-year truckload volumes are now expected to be roughly flat for 2025, with only small rate increases. Industry surveys and indices mirror this cooling: ACT Research notes that freight volumes “remain subdued, with signs of further slowing as tariff-related uncertainty dampens industrial activity”. Shippers have pulled inventory levels down and postponed restocking until pricing and policy stabilize, meaning fewer loads for for-hire carriers. In practical terms, less inbound freight from Asia and softer domestic manufacturing orders have left many trucking firms scrambling to find backhaul loads.

Industry Response: Adaptation and Technology

Logistics and dispatch operations have responded by diversifying and digitizing. Carriers are focusing more on regional and near-shore lanes (such as Mexico or domestic backhauls) and retooling networks around growing local manufacturing. For example, C.H. Robinson reports many carriers are prioritizing return loads into Mexico (e.g. Laredo→Puebla lanes) to balance border crossings, and monitoring resilient sectors for new freight. At the same time, fleets are trimming costs and adopting tech solutions: companies are expanding use of transportation management systems, dynamic dispatch software, and data analytics to match truck supply with unpredictable demand. In the words of one industry observer, carriers are finding ways to “trim expenses without cutting quality” by revamping how they handle dispatch and capacity. Firms are also hedging risk by handling a wider variety of cargo; nearshoring trends have spurred large investments in North American production (Mexico alone saw ~$65 billion in factory deals by mid-2024), which helps re-balance freight flows into U.S. domestic lanes.

• Capacity management – Carriers re-aligned routes and equipment based on shifting trade flows (e.g. focusing on Mexico or Canada lanes) and deferred new truck orders as demand tightened.

• Technology adoption – Logistics firms accelerated use of automated load boards, telematics, and forecasting tools to optimize dispatch in a volatile market (identifying available loads quickly and matching them to capacity).

• Diversification of freight – Many shippers and 3PLs are turning to alternative suppliers and regions. Nearshoring (bringing factories to North America) is expected to increase domestic freight flows. This counterbalances some China-related loss and creates new trucking opportunities in U.S.-Mexico and U.S. domestic lanes.

Industry Forecasts and Nearshoring Outlook

Most analysts expect the freight slump to persist through 2025, with only a gradual recovery on the horizon. Fitch Ratings projects a “slowly improving” freight cycle beginning in 2025, supported by economic stability and growth in U.S. manufacturing shipments. By late 2025, demand and volumes should start to rebound as markets adjust to the tariff regime and as nearshoring takes hold. However, others remain cautious: FTR and ACT Research have downgraded near-term freight forecasts due to the tariff shock. FTR’s vice president recently noted that global tariffs and a “full‑fledged trade war” will push the industry’s recovery into 2026. In short, forecasters see stabilization, not boom – the worst of the slump appears over, but only modest growth is expected until late 2025 or early 2026.

At the same time, shifting trade patterns offer a long-term tailwind. The rise of nearshoring and onshoring means more U.S.-region freight. For example, Mexico solidified its role as America’s top trade partner (accounting for ~16% of U.S. trade in early 2024), and major nearshoring announcements have poured in. Fitch notes that expanding North American manufacturing should “increase domestic freight flows”. Logistics providers and carriers that align with these trends – by optimizing cross-border lanes or capturing regional loads – are likely to fare better as the global trade war pressures ease.

Why Professional Dispatchers Matter

In volatile markets, savvy dispatchers become invaluable. They keep carriers productive by quickly reallocating capacity to the best-paying lanes, negotiating with shippers, and using industry data to anticipate shifts. Trucking42’s dispatch team, with 8 years of industry experience, exemplifies this expertise. Their dispatchers continuously monitor freight markets and leverage technology to fill trucks — for instance, by shifting to alternative routes or customers when China-bound loads dry up. This proactive approach helps carriers maintain revenue even when spot markets fluctuate. In short, a professional dispatcher acts as an early warning system and matchmaker for loads, smoothing out the bumps in an uncertain market.

Carriers that partner with expert dispatch services can navigate this freight volatility more confidently. By outsourcing dispatch, small and mid-sized fleets offload the burden of constant market tracking and load-matching. Trucking42’s experienced dispatchers help ensure trucks are never idle for long, even amid shifting trade flows. Consider leveraging dispatch specialists to ride out the tariff-driven cycle. If you want to Learn more about Trucking42’s dispatch services you can visit our website – https://trucking42.com/.